Track: Aqueduct
Purse: $300,000
Distance: One Mile
Points: 50-20-10-5 to first four finishers
With all the speed horses in this race, the closer Haikal could get the perfect setup to pull a major upset. Instagrand is good and he could just as well be much faster than the other runners, but he will face a lot of pace challenge and has a lot of things going against him like shipping, the distance and his layoff. Much Better can sit off the pace and be successful, and with Baffert and Smith teaming up I would not count this horse out. Mind Control hasn’t been getting as much attention, but this is his home track and it is his ideal distance.
1 – Family Biz (30/1)
- Fed Biz – I’mclassyandsassy by Master Command
- Edward Barker / Kendrick Carmouche
- Running style: closer
- 7-1-2-2
- 3rd by 5 ½ lengths in 1-mile Jerome
- Most recently 4th by 4 ½ lengths in 7 furlong Jimmy Winkfield
- Facing several of the same challengers again
- Would need very fast pace to be a major factor
- Faces major class challenge
2 – Knicks Go (12/1)
- Paynter – Kosmo’s Buddy by Outflanker
- Ben Colebrook / Jose Lezcano
- Press the pace
- 7-2-1-1
- Great juvenile season winning G1 Breeders’ Futurity by 5 ½ and 2nd in BC Juvenile
- Looks to be going downhill since his juvenile season
- 11th by 18 ¾ lengths as favorite in G2 KY Jockey Club in slop
- 5th by 13 lengths as favorite in G3 Sam F. Davis
- Cutting back in distance, but will have a lot of pace challengers to deal with
- Needs big time rebound to prove he can still compete at this high level
3 – Mind Control (9/2)
- Stay Thirsty – Feel That Fire by Lightning N Thunder
- Gregory Sacco / John Velazquez
- Pacesetter / press the pace
- 5-3-1-0
- Won 1-mile Jerome at Aqueduct by 1 ½ lengths in 3yo debut
- Same conditions as this race
- Mile seems like his best distance
- Tougher field than he has faced with a lot of early speed to battle
- Two year old season: Won G1 Hopeful in 3rd start before troubled trip led to 7th in G1 BC Juvenile
- Contender
- Same conditions as this race
4 – Much Better (10/1)
- Pioneerof the Nile – Dust and Diamonds by Vindication
- Bob Baffert / Mike Smith
- Duo rarely defeated together in NY and Baffert rarely send horses to NY to lose
- Pacesetter / press the pace
- 5-2-1-1
- Stakes placed on turf, but looks to prefer dirt
- Debut winner on dirt as a 2 year old at Del Mar
- Never outside of the money on dirt
- 3rd in the Sham (G3) after being near the hot pace
- Recently front running 3 ½ length winner of allowance sprint at Santa Anita
- 2-for-2 sprinting and 0-for-3 going long
- Can perform well sitting off the pace, so if he does that he can hit the board
5 – Haikal (6/1)
- Daheer – Sablah by Distorted Humor
- Kiaran McLaughlin / Rajiv Maragh
- Closer
- 3-2-1-0
- Won or lost by a neck in all three races
- Broke maiden before winning the Jimmy Winkfield in last start
- All starts have been at Aqueduct
- Stepping up in class while stretching out to a mile for the first time
- Projected speed in this race will set up his strong closing move, making him a live longshot
6 – Instagrand (1/1)
- Into Mischief – Asset of War by Lawyer Ron
- Jerry Hollendorfer / Javier Castellano
- Pacesetter
- 2-2-0-0
- Undefeated
- $1.2 million 2yo purchase won 2 sprint races by combined 20 ¼ lengths including G2 Best Pal
- First start since August, going past 6 furlongs, and shipping outside California
- Distance wise this race is good move to test his distance ability, but will be facing several other horses who prefer to run near the lead
- Might just be faster than challengers given what we saw last year
- Has had several solid workouts leading up to this and is the top choice, but not worth the price
- Distance wise this race is good move to test his distance ability, but will be facing several other horses who prefer to run near the lead
7 – Not That Brady (5/1)
- Big Brown – Lisa’s Booby Trap by Drewman
- Rudy Rodriguez / Reylu Gutierrez
- Pacesetter
- 6-2-2-0
- 3 length winner of Damon Runyon Stakes for NY breds before 2nd by head to Tax in G3 Withers
- Cutting back in distance here
- Had uncontested pace in last 4 starts, but he will not get that here
- Needs to take step forward to win this against improved competition, but drawing outside of the other speed horses will help him
- Has dealt with a quarter crack between races
8 – Tikhvin Flew (12/1)
- Street Sense – Chatique by Deputy Minister
- Steve Asmussen / Dylan Davis
- Press the pace
- 2-1-0-1
- 1 ¾ length winner in debut before 3rd in Jimmy Winkfield by 2 lengths with both at Aqueduct
- Home track advantage
- Lackluster performance against NY-breds in last start
- This will be first time running against open company
- Has talent, but faces major class jump and this race seems like a tough test for him